2017年10月25日 星期三

a tsar is born. Vladimir Putin:a chilling North Korea warning. Putin is not the strong man he says he is. Putin’s Syria ‘success’ has come at an amazing cost (FT). 普丁陷入中東漩渦(江春男)Putin ;The Football Association / Fifa: no rerun of the bidding process


As the world marks the centenary of the October revolution, Russia is once again under the rule of a tsar. Our cover this week



Putin warns Washington provocative rhetoric could spark ‘large-scale conflict’ with North Korea


'Provocations, pressure, and offensive rhetoric is the road to nowhere,' Russian president warns
The Economist

Russians are getting poorer and hungrier. But when they switch on the news, they are filled with patriotic pride
His willingness and ability to act abroad gives Vladimir Putin a big boost at home
ECON.ST


Vladimir Putin is not the strong man he says he is. His foreign policy is born of weakness and made for television. This week's global cover


Financial Times
Is this Vladimir Putin’s “mission accomplished” moment?

(Picture by Getty)



Putin’s Syrian adventure may have strengthened Moscow’s hand, at…
ON.FT.COM

 司馬觀點:普丁陷入中東漩渦(江春男)

「伊斯蘭國」的暴行,令人聞風喪膽,它的網站意外出現台灣國旗,許多寶島子民就被嚇壞了。看到普丁出動導彈和戰機,大力攻擊「伊斯蘭國」基地,比當年的小布希還神勇,世人嘲笑歐巴馬不知躲到哪裡去了。
不過,發動戰爭比處理戰爭容易,美國在伊拉克得到慘痛教訓,現在努力要從這個大漩渦中脫困,普丁如要取代老美的地位,老美也會樂觀其成。俄國戰機被土耳其擊落,只是小菜一碟,主菜還未上場。
俄土有百年恩怨,兩國在敘利亞的利益有重大衝突。土耳其支持反抗軍,想扳倒阿塞德。俄羅斯則以保住阿塞德政權為首要目的,打擊「伊斯蘭國」是次要的,反抗軍也順便打。這次俄機攻擊的土庫曼地區,根本沒有「伊斯蘭國」蹤影。
敘利亞邊界很長,有數個少數民族,人口最多的庫德族,長年和土耳其對抗,但也有土庫曼人,與土耳其同文同種。土耳其收容最多敘利亞難民,人數將近200萬,早就焦頭爛額,普丁派出大批戰機,炸死的恐怖份子有限,阿塞德的政權暫時穩住了,普丁成為他的救命恩人,反對派士氣大受打擊。 

介入內戰派系鬥爭

從黑海發射巡弋飛彈,在敘利亞部署飛彈基地,出動上千次轟炸任務,又展現規模巨大的戰情室,普丁親自坐鎮指揮攻擊行動,這些肌肉秀,純粹作政治宣傳,糊弄看熱鬧的人,與反恐沒有直接關係。
反恐首重情資,沒有確實情報,出動軍事行動要打誰?美國投入無數金錢,在這地區連續搞了十多年,至今還無法掌握,俄國有那麼天才嗎?
普丁介入敘利亞內戰,等於介入遜尼派和什葉派的鬥爭,得罪沙烏地和土耳其及海灣國家,更讓俄國境內的遜尼派激進勢力蠢蠢欲動。
普丁有帝國的衝動,捅了遜尼派的馬蜂窩,在敘利亞越陷越深,當年阿富汗的足跡,似曾相識。 



This week’s KAL’s cartoon http://econ.st/1KSp70L

FA chief 'not interested' in hosting 2018 and 2022 World Cups

The Football Association has no interest in hosting the 2018 or 2022 World Cups if they are taken away from respective hosts Russia and Qatar.
Swiss prosecutors are investigating the bids for the tournaments, although Fifa says there will be no rerun of the bidding process.
UK Culture Secretary John Whittingdale says England could step in as a ready-made replacement if asked.
But FA chief executive Martin Glenn said: "We are really not interested."

2018 and 2022 World Cup bidders and winners

2018: Russia, England, Belgium and Netherlands, Portugal and Spain
2022: Qatar, Australia, Japan, South Korea, United States
Speaking to Sky News, Glenn added that the 2018 tournament "has gone to Russia in good faith".
"They have not had a World Cup, why shouldn't they play there? And 2022 was never going to be in Europe [under Fifa rules] so it should be outside of Europe," he continued.
"So we support the World Cup being dispersed around the world, as the name suggests."
In addition to the Swiss investigation, seven senior Fifa officials have been arrested among 14 indicted on corruption charges by the United States Department of Justice.
Despite subsequently being re-elected, Sepp Blatter has announced he is to quit as president of world football's governing body.
"We are very pleased that there is going to be change at Fifa," said Glenn.
"We will work with Uefa and Fifa to make sure there is progress. We need someone who is strong and will professionalise the set-up [as president]."
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